For most folks this year, Springtime in the world of the Wolfpack has been all about N.C. State basketball.

Baseball, too - but I can’t talk about them without getting upset in light of last weekend’s Stanford debacle.

In the background, Dave Doeren’s squad has quietly, methodically improved. They picked up several key additions on the defensive side of the ball and retained a wealth of offensive talent. Without the Spring game to serve as that “mile marker” of the football calendar, the biggest sport on campus has gone a bit unnoticed.

With the release of college football win totals, it’s time to pull football off the back burner and take a look at what Vegas thinks.

First, a current look at State’s win total and odds:

• FanDuel: 6.5 wins (Over +126, Under -156)
• Draftkings: 6.5 wins (Over +125, Under -150)

Using Fanduel’s odds, that’s an implied probability of ~43% that State wins more than 6.5 games. Hm.

Let’s break down who the Pack will see - I’ve got this table sorted by the schedule with Vegas win projections, SP+ rankings as of 2/27, and On3’s portal rankings:

The immediate thought: Holy coin flips.

This schedule is full of meh. State gets 6 teams within 14 SP+ spots of each other in the 40’s - and that doesn’t include Virginia, who I believe will be much better this year after a strong transfer portal haul this Spring.

To answer the “What side of 6.5 wins should I bet?” I’m going to take a very short look at each matchup based on what we know and feel today. This is not an end all be all schedule preview - moreso an exercise in thinking in probabilities about what State will do.

Should Be Wins

ECU

Don’t let the Military Bowl fool you. If those two teams were to play again tomorrow on a neutral field, State would (again) be favored by a touchdown.

State is more talented. They’re at home. They’re also less bone-headed than they were in December, simply by showing Robert Anae the door.

I’m not convinced that Kurt Roper will be an elite play caller, but if he puts the ball in his best players’ hands, doesn’t call 10 designed runs for C.J. Bailey, and doesn’t sit Hollywood Smothers for an entire quarter in close games, then State should score ~ a touchdown more per game this year.

This is a game State wins 85% of the time.

Campbell

Enough said.

Should Be Losses

Notre Dame

At South Bend. Enough Said.

Miami

Mario Cristobal is a cringy goofball who may be one of the worst in-game coaches in the country. You know what’s more important than in-game coaching? Getting dudes to play for your football program.

Miami has done a good job of this. I’m not a Carson Beck believer, but he’s an above replacement college quarterback surrounded by 4 and 5 stars and the 5th best portal class in the country.

Flip a Coin

Virginia (Lean Win)

Virginia’s transfer portal class this year has a lot going on. Losing starters like QB Anthony Colandrea and star WR Malachi Fields hurts, but they’ve added several major contributors on both lines, and grabbed experienced QB Chandler Morris for his final year. The Hoos sport the 25th highest rated portal class according to On3.

This team isn’t as bad as their current SP+ rating might suggest. While State’s home dominance was not on display last year, Carter-Finley is a tough place to play against two new coordinators.

@ Wake (Strong lean win)

The legendary Dave Clawson (said with heavy sarcasm) decided modern CFB wasn’t for him anymore. Washington State head coach Jake Dickert has the reins, and flipping an already down-trodden roster into a competitor in year one doesn’t seem to be in the cards.

Wake lost several high profile offensive linemen and skill players, and already neede a tremendous amount of defensive improvement. Winston-Salem curse be damned, I feel good about State winning this one on the road.

@ Duke (Strong lean loss)

Duke could have folded completely on football after Mike Elko left. Manny Diaz instead has the Devils in position to continue winning at a historically good pace.

Consistency is the word for this program - Duke had the second fewest outgoing transfers in the portal behind Clemson, and they grabbed one of the top portal QBs available in Darian Mensah. State will have as many fans in Durham as Duke will, but this is still a tough test against a team that played tremendously sound defense last year.

Virginia Tech (Lean win)

Kyron Drones was one of the ACC’s most hyped quarterbacks heading into 2024, but his numbers backslid significantly. From 818 yards on 4.9 yards per carry in ‘23, to 336 on 3.4 in ‘24. That doesn’t factor in how bad he looked passing the football, either.

This is another ACC school with a top 25 portal class, but Tech had five major contributors get drafted this year, and they lost their best offensive lineman and linebacker in the portal. I’m not buying what Brent Pry is selling.

@ Pitt (Lean Win)

Pitt’s program is in such a weird place. They won the ACC in 2021, but every year since has seen a slide. In 2023 they went 3-9. Last year they started 7-0 before losing six in a row. Pat Narduzzi’s welcome is wearing thin.

Pitt does have returning QB Eli Holstein, but I’m skeptical of where this program is bigger picture, alongside Pitt’s inability to land major difference makers through the transfer portal. State gets a bye before playing the Panthers, who will be home for the first time in three weeks. Ultimately, I think State squeaks this one out on the road.

Georgia Tech (Lean win)

…Sorry, I just had a flashback of Tech QB Aaron Philo scrambling for 12098 yards on last year’s final drive for the win.

GT sits at 64th of 70 Power 4 teams in On3’s portal rankings. When you’ve got a returning QB you feel good about, perhaps that rating isn’t as important (State is in a similar spot.) GT did lose star WR Eric Singleton, and several impact players along the line of scrimmage.

This is probably the most 50/50 game on the schedule for me. I’m going to lean State here because this one is at home, and I think State can outscore a similarly structured team (strong offense, suspect defense.)

Florida State (lean loss)

The ‘Noles are a difficult team to analyze. Strong brand, recruiting base, and recent history, but 2024 was one of the worst blow ups I can remember from a team of their caliber.

They’ve done well in the portal and have gobs of high profile talent waiting in the wings. Per usual, the ultimate question is if they can hit at quarterback. Boston College transfer Thomas Castellanos has shown flashes, but was benched last year. I lean loss at home right now, but this could flip drastically pending how the pieces look when put together - this is a bet on talent disparity.

UNC (Lean win)

The Jordon Heels have seen more roster turnover than anyone this offseason - a whopping 82 combined transfers in and out of the program.

The team up the road has added some nice pieces - South Alabama QB Gio Lopez, Washington CB Thaddeus Dixon, among others - but they lost their best returning LB, DE, and OL. I laugh at the idea of UNC having the 9th best portal class in the country; adding 41 names to the roster will certainly inflate that ranking.

Couple the personnel turnover with the drama unraveling from a 73 year old and his 24 year old love interest, and this team having to come to Raleigh…I don’t see it.

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Totaling up my projections here - you get an ~8-4 football team. For the sake of wanting to de-risk this a bit for “gambling purposes,” maybe you add one of Pitt/GT/UNC to that loss list.

There’s enough variance in this middle block of games to where State could legitimately finish anywhere from 4-8 to 9-3. I’d be pretty happy with an 8-4 year all things considered.

With that said, I was pretty confident that State would win 8+ games last year. That was before Grayson McCall started the year looking hurt and eventually quitting football permanently.

Things change quickly, and we’ve got an entire Summer and Fall Camp to go before we see kickoff, but I like State winning 7+ games this year. Take the over and pray that the Law of the Wolf (low expectations, high achievement) plays out here.

Note: this is not gambling advice, but a lens with which to view State’s season.